My Returned-From-Hiatusly Inaccurate Tony Predictions

 Tony Awards! Soon! What will win? Hell if I know! Here! We! Go!

What will win. Zelda's choice.

Best Play

Clyde's by Lynn Nottage

Hangmen by Martin McDonagh

The Lehman Trilogy by Stefano Massini and Ben Power

The Minutes by Tracy Letts

Skeleton Crew by Dominique Morriseau

They're all solidly well-written plays and consummate productions, but for me Lehman is a cut above in terms of an overall experience. It's still a tough call to make, because I loved Skeleton Crew. That being said, I don't think I'd be surprised if Clyde's snags it after all.

Uzo Aduba, Kara Young, Ron Cephas Jones, Edmund Donovan, and Reza
Salazar as Clyde, Letitia, Montrellous, Jason, and Rafael in Clyde's.
Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Musical

Girl From The North Country

MJ

Mr. Saturday Night

Paradise Square

SIX: The Musical

A Strange Loop

Even if it hadn't already won the damn Pulitzer for its Off-Broadway run, A Strange Loop would be the clear frontrunner this season, more dramatically compelling and narratively coherent than most of its competition, while also simultaneously embracing its predecessors and pushing the medium forward. It's too bad for SIX, which is a really good (if thin) time and will probably have a healthy sold-out run, but A Strange Loop deserves this win.

Jacquel Spivey, center, as Usher, with James Jackson, Jr., Jason Veasey, 
John-Michael Lyles, L Morgan Lee, John-Andrew Morrison, and Antwayn
Hopper as Thought 2, Thought 5, Thought 3, Thought 1, Thought 4, and
Thought 6 in A Strange Loop. Photo by Marc J. Franklin.

Best Revival of a Play

American Buffalo

for colored girls who have considered suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf

How I Learned to Drive

Take Me Out

Trouble in Mind

By all accounts, Sam Rockwell is the only reason to see the American Buffalo revival (which, enjoy him though I do, isn't enough for me to give any more time in my life to what David Mamet has to say). And while it's wonderful that How I Learned to Drive finally got its Broadway due, it's similarly more about the performances of Parker and Morse than the production itself. The Take Me Out revival is fine but doesn't outshine the original for me. I'm still pretty divided between Trouble in Mind and for colored girls, both of which are great productions of important and powerful plays. I'm leaning more toward for colored girls as the likely winner, if only because it's running in the Spring season, and Trouble in Mind has been closed for a while.

Tendayi Kuumba, Kenita R. Miller, Okwui Okpokwasili, Amare Granderson,
Alexandria Wailes, Stacey Sargeant, and D. Woods as Lady in Brown,
Lady in Red, Lady in Green, Lady in Orange, Lady in Purple, Lady in Blue,
and Lady in Yellow in for colored girls who have considered suicide/
when the rainbow is enuf. Photo by Marc J. Franklin.

Best Revival of a Musical

Caroline, or Change

Company

The Music Man

In my not-even-humble opinion, it's no contest here. The Music Man has very little to say, and the rewrites removes so much tension and conflict from the show that it's rendered inert. And while Company has a lot of new to say, readers may recall I had five paragraphs worth of opinions about its wrongness. Caroline, though, was just terrific from top to bottom, and it better get the win.

The cast of Caroline, or Change. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Book of a Musical

Girl From The North Country, Conor McPherson

MJ, Lynn Nottage

Mr. Saturday Night, Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz & Babaloo Mandel

Paradise Square, Christina Anderson, Craig Lucas & Larry Kirwan

A Strange Loop, Michael R. Jackson

No question, for this or Original Score, as far as I'm concerned. Even if I liked the books for Girl, Mr., or Paradise, which I do not.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Flying Over Sunset, music by Tom Kitt, lyrics by Michael Korie

Mr. Saturday Night, music by Jason Robert Brown, lyrics by Amanda Green

Paradise Square, music by Jason Howland, lyrics by Nathan Tysen and Masi Asare

SIX: The Musical, music and lyrics by Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss

A Strange Loop, music and lyrics by Michael R. Jackson

See above. Give Michael R. Jackson all the Tonys!

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Gabby Beans, The Skin of Our Teeth

LaChanze, Trouble in Mind

Ruth Negga, Macbeth

Dierdre O'Connell, Dana H.

Mary-Louise Parker, How I Learned to Drive

I feel like it'll be easy, the day after the awards, to look back and say "Of course she won. She fucking earned it, did you see her performance?" and have it be true about any of these five nominees (well, I'm not seeing Macbeth, but Ruth Negga is a force to be reckoned with, and I saw how good her Hamlet was). Y'all, I'm staring and staring at this list and I still don't know who will win, or even who I want to win. How lucky are we that we had so many good performances this season? I'm giving the edge to Dierdre O'Connell, just because of how particular a challenge that performance must have been, but damn I'd love to see the luminous LaChanze win for her breath-stealing performance. Or MLP, who is transcendent in the role she originated decades earlier.

Dierdre O'Connell as Dana in Dana H. Photo by Carol Rosegg.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Simon Russell Beale, The Lehman Trilogy

Adam Godley, The Lehman Trilogy

Adrian Lester, The Lehman Trilogy

David Morse, How I Learned to Drive

Sam Rockwell, American Buffalo

Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Lackawanna Blues

David Threlfall, Hangmen

So. I think the three fellows from Lehman will cancel each other out, to start with, amazing as all three of them were (ugh, so good. So, so so good). My money's on Morse for his understated and sympathetic portrayal of a complicated monster.

Mary-Louise Parker and David Morse as Li'l Bit and Uncle Peck in How I 
Learned to Drive. Photo by Jeremy Daniel.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Sharon D Clarke, Caroline, or Change

Carmen Cusack, Flying Over Sunset

Sutton Foster, The Music Man

Joaquina Kalukango, Paradise Square

Mare Winningham, Girl From The North Country

Another one where it makes me angry to have to pick a favorite. Why can't they have ties at the Tonys? For my personal favorite I refuse to choose between Kalukango, the undisputed highlight of the overblown Paradise Square, and Clarke's compelling and gut-wrenching performance in Caroline. For the actual win, Kalukango might have the edge, because her show's still running, and because holy shit.

Chilina Kennedy and Joaquina Kalukango as Annie Lewis and Nelly O'Brian
in Paradise Square. Photo by Kevin Berne.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Billy Crystal, Mr. Saturday Night

Myles Frost, MJ

Hugh Jackman, The Music Man

Rob McClure, Mrs. Doubtfire

Jacquel Spivey, A Strange Loop

I'm sorry, Hugh Jackman, Jacquel Spivey is for real.

Jacquel Spivey as Usher in A Strange Loop. Photo by marc J. Franklin.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Uzo Aduba, Clyde's

Rachel Dratch, POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive

Kenita R. Miller, for colored girls who have considered suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf

Phylicia Rashad, Skeleton Crew

Julie White, POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive

Kara Young, Clyde's

Another ridiculously strong group. I absolutely adored Rachel Dratch's hilarious turn in POTUS but holy crap Kenita R. Miller's tour de force monologue in for colored girls  puts her over the edge for me.

Kenita R. Miller as Lady in Red in for colored girls who have considered 
suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf. Photo by Marc J. Franklin.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Alfie Allen, Hangmen

Chuck Cooper, Trouble in Mind

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Take Me Out

Ron Cephas Jones, Clyde's

Michael Oberholtzer, Take Me Out

Jesse Williams, Take Me Out

Chuck Cooper held an entire theater spellbound when he told the story of witnessing a lynching as a child, and with the career this man's had I wouldn't be surprised if this is his year. But. Ron Cephas Jones has also long been a fixture of the New York theater scene, and his turn in Clyde's was so delicate and powerful that this could also be his year. I'm rooting for either one.

Uzo Aduba and Ron Cephas Jones as Clyde and Montrellous in Clyde's.
Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Jeannette Bayardelle, Girl From The North Country

Shoshana Bean, Mr. Saturday Night

Jayne Houdyshell, The Music Man

L Morgan Lee, A Strange Loop

Patti LuPone, Company

Jennifer Simard, Company

God, I would love for Jennifer Simard to win for her hilarious take on Sarah, but let's be real y'all.

Patti LuPone and Katrina Lenk as Joanne and Bobbi in Company.
Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Matt Doyle, Company

Sidney DuPont, Paradise Square

Jared Grimes, Funny Girl

John-Andrew Morrison, A Strange Loop

A.J. Shively, Paradise Square

Ugh I don't know. Matt Doyle? Maybe? People really liked him. But I'm voting for John-Andrew Morrison.

Matt Doyle as Jamie in Company. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Beowulf Boritt, POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive

Michael Carnahan and Nicholas Hussong, Skeleton Crew

Es Devlin, The Lehman Trilogy

Anna Fleischle, Hangmen

Scott Pask, American Buffalo

Adam Rigg, The Skin of Our Teeth

I liked the rotating glass box and all the file boxes of Es Devlin's design for Lehman, but I don't think it'll win. Between Hangmen and Skin I'd rather Hangmen because Anna Fleischle's design is a series of mindfucks in a space where you don't expect it. But Adam Rigg's work in Skin has a two-story-high carnival slide and a forest and a dinosaur breaking down the front door, so.

The company of The Skin of Our Teeth, on Adam Rigg's scenic design.
Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Beowulf Boritt and 59 Productions, Flying Over Sunset

Bunny Christie, Company

Arnuflo Maldonado, A Strange Loop

Derek McLane and Peter Nigrini, MJ

Allen Moyer, Paradise Square

I don't have a favorite in this crowd ... to be honest of the four productions here I did see, I didn't love any of the designs. So ... shrug?

Joaquina Kalukango as Nelly O'Brian with the ensemble of Paradise Square,
on Allen Moyer's scenic design. Photo by Kevin Berne.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Montana Levi Blanco, The Skin of Our Teeth

Sarafina Bush, for colored girls who have considered suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf

Emilio Sosa, Trouble in Mind

Jane Greenwood, Neil Simon's Plaza Suite

Jennifer Moeller, Clyde's

I don't really have a horse in this race either.

Julian Robertson, Roslyn Ruff, and Paige Gilbert as Henry Antrobus,
Mrs. Antrobus, and Gladys Antrobus in The Skin of Our Teeth, wearing
Montana Levi Blanco's costume design. Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Fly Davis, Caroline, or Change

Toni-Leslie James, Paradise Square

William Ivey Long, Diana: The Musical

Santo Loquasto, The Music Man

Gabriella Slade, SIX: The Musical

Paul Tazewell, MJ

Biomusicals about people with iconic wardrobes tend to do well here, so I'll give Paul Tazewell the edge, but I'd like to see Gabriella Slade's badass Six costumes pick this one up.

Myles Frost, center, as MJ, with the ensemble of MJ, wearing Paul Tazewell's
costume design. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Joshua Carr, Hangmen

Jiyoun Chang, for colored girls who have considered suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf

Jon Clark, The Lehman Trilogy

Jane Cox, Macbeth

Yi Zhao, The Skin of Our Teeth

While I think there's a chance Joshua Carr's work in Hangmen could be recognized here, I think it's more likely for Jiyoun Chang or Jon Clark to get this one.

D. Woods, center, as Lady in Yellow, with Tendayi Kuumba, Kenita R. Miller,
and Alexandria Wailes as Lady in Brown, Lady in Red, and Lady in Purple
in for colored girls who have considered suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf,
under Jiyoun Chang's lighting design. Photo by Marc J. Franklin.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Neil Austin, Company

Tim Deiling, SIX: The Musical

Donald Holder, Paradise Square

Natasha Katz, MJ

Bradley King, Flying Over Sunset

Jen Schriever, A Strange Loop

Both of these are 100% stabs in the dark. I liked SIX's design by Tim Deiling. I think other people liked Flying's by Bradley King.

The  cast of Flying Over Sunset under Bradley King's lighting design. 
Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Sound Design of a Play

Justin Ellington, for colored girls who have considered suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf

Mikhail Fiksel, Dana H.

Palmer Hefferan, The Skin of Our Teeth

Nick Powell and Dominic Bilkey, The Lehman Trilogy

Mikaal Sulaiman, Macbeth

Mikhail Fiksel's sound design in Dana H. is basically Dierdre O'Connell's costar. That being said, Justin Ellington's sound design for for colored girls and Nick Powell and Dominic Bilkey's for Lehman are also excellent (I thought the sound for Skin was a MESS and I'm surprised it's in the list, but I think I already carped about that).

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Simon Baker, Girl From The North Country

Paul Gatehouse, SIX: The Musical

Ian Dickinson for Autograph, Company

Drew Levy, A Strange Loop

Gareth Owen, MJ

Nearly the entire show is a rock concert, so this is what I'm assuming, but what do I know about sound design?

Best Orchestrations

David Cullen, Company

Tom Curran, SIX: The Musical

Simon Hale, Girl From The North Country

Jason Michael Webb and David Holcenberg, MJ

Charlie Rosen, A Strange Loop

Ah, we finally hit the one award I'd give to Girl From The North Country! Nice work, Simon Hale, you did my favorite part of the show.

Best Choreography

Camille A. Brown, for colored girls who have considered suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf

Warren Carlyle, The Music Man

Carrie-Anne Ingrouille, SIX: The Musical

Bill T. Jones, Paradise Square

Christopher Wheeldon, MJ

I'm kind of surprised Bill T. Jones has solo choreo credit for Paradise Square, considering it had, what, three choreographers and a musical stager? But it was great work. There's a chance Christopher Wheeldon could get this for MJ (again, iconic dancing recreated), but I'm still voting Jones for my preference.

Myles Frost, center, as MJ with the cast of MJ. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Direction of a Play

Lileana Blain-Cruz, The Skin of Our Teeth

Camille A. Brown, for colored girls who have considered suicide/ when the rainbow is enuf

Sam Mendes, The Lehman Trilogy

Neil Pepe, American Buffalo

Having read the prose poem The Lehman Trilogy (okay, having read some of it, it's super long but I'll finish it eventually), I can tell that so many decisions went into not only editing down to what would be put onstage, but also how to stage and dramatize that third person narration to make it compelling and deeply personal, crafting three extraordinary actors through generations of a family. Camille A. Brown did excellent work with for colored girls and I'm assuming Neil Pepe, as a seasoned Mamet director, also did fine work, but for me this is Mendes's award.

Adam Godley, Simon Russell Beale, and Adrian Lester in The Lehman
Trilogy. Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Direction of a Musical

Stephen Brackett, A Strange Loop

Marianne Elliott, Company

Conor McPherson, Girl From The North Country

Lucy Moss & Jamie Armitage, SIX: The Musical

Christopher Wheeldon, MJ

I think A Strange Loop is going to walk away with the big ones this year: musical, book, score, and director (and hopefully leading actor!).

James Jackson, Jr., L Morgan lee, Antwayn Hopper, John-Andrew Morrison,
Jacquel Spivey, Jason Veasey, and John-Michael Lyles as Thought 2, Thought
1, Thought 6, Thought 4, Usher, Thought 5, and Thought 3 in A Strange
Loop. Photo by Marc J. Franklin.