My Procrastinated and Inaccurate Tony Predictions

Anthony Martinez-Briggs and Brenson Thomas in The Wilma
Theater's 2023 production of Fat Ham. Photo by Joanna Austin.

 Hi, this past year has been terrible for your friend Zelda. Like, objectively terrible and subjectively terrible and feeling like it got worse each month (bonus: I'm now on antidepressants and they're helping ... somewhat). Part of what this meant is I was very late to the game on getting tickets to see some of the shows. Some I skipped deliberately (The Heart of Rock and Roll, Spamalot; oh, and I guess I skipped the Broadway transfer of Days of Wine and Roses), some I didn't realize I missed the full run of (sorry, Doubt). Some I ended up seeing against my better judgement (Uncle Vanya, Cabaret). But yeah, here we are. I think my biggest excitement for this year's Tonys is the Regional Theatre award going to Wilma Theater, a fantastic Philly-based company who's been putting consistently good work online since 2020 so that those of us who aren't local can partake (I am a digital subscriber to their season). They're where the Pulitzer-winning Fat Ham started, and it's nice to see them get this big recognition.

Okay, let's do it!

What will win. Zelda's choice.

Best Play

Jaja's African Hair Braiding, Jocelyn Bioh

Mary Jane, Amy Herzog

Mother Play, Paula Vogel

Prayer for the French Republic, Joshua Harmon

Stereophonic, David Adjmi

This is such an unfair list. All five of these were great, both in the writing and the production. I think Stereophonic, with all its buzz, will probably win, but I'd rather Jaja's African Hair Braiding or Prayer for the French Republic win.

Sarah Pidgeon, Juliana Canfield, and Tom Pecinka as Diana, Holly, and Peter
in Stereophonic. Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Musical

Hell's Kitchen

Illinoise

The Outsiders

Suffs

Water for Elephants

Honestly, none of these really won me over fully, but this should probably go to The Outsiders.

Sky Lakota-Lynch, Joshua Boone, and Brody Grant, center, as Johnny Cade,
Dallas Winston, and Ponyboy Curtis, with the cast of The Outsiders.
Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Revival of a Play

An Enemy of the People, new version by Amy Herzog

Appropriate

Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

I think Appropriate will probably win, but I found Purlie Victorious to be so exuberant and free. I'd love to see it take home the prize (and perhaps it landing on PBS this month will help its chances?)

Michael Esper, Elle Fanning, Natalie Gold, Alyssa Emily Marvin, Corey
Stoll, and Sarah Paulson as Franz, River, Rachael, Cassidy, Bo, and Toni
in Appropriate. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Revival of a Musical

Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Gutenberg! The Musical!

Merrily We Roll Along

The Who's Tommy

I doubt this one is a big mystery. It's about time Merrily was a Broadway hit, and it sucks that its creators aren't alive to see its triumph. That being said, Tommy is a good time too.

Daniel Radcliffe, Jonathan Groff, and Lindsay Mendez as Charley, Frank,
and Mary in Merrily We Roll Along. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Book of a Musical

Hell's Kitchen, Kristoffer Diaz

The Notebook, Bekah Brunstetter

The Outsiders, Adam Rapp with Justin Levine

Suffs, Shaina Taub

Water for Elephants, Rick Elice

It feels super weird to write this, but I think The Notebook probably had the strongest book of these five. But I bet Shaina Taub wins (and to be fair, she showed her skill at rewriting ably, as the Broadway version of her show has grown leaps and bounds from its Off-Broadway iteration).

Shaina Taub as Alice Paul with the cast of Suffs. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Days of Wine and Roses, Music and Lyrics by Adam Guettel

Here Lies Love, Music by David Byrne and Fatboy Slim, Lyrics by David Byrne

The Outsiders, Music and Lyrics by Jamestown Revival (Jonathan Clay and Zach Chance) and Justin Levine

Stereophonic, Music and Lyrics by Will Butler

Suffs, Music and Lyrics by Shaina Taub

It'll be interesting (if a bit of a kick in the teeth for the musicals) if Stereophonic walks off with Best Score, but it's got all this momentum. Then again, I know other people were bigger fans of Guettel's and Taub's work this season than I was (to say nothing of the trio behind The Outsiders). It feels weird not really having a horse in this race, but I keep thinking about how much I love listening to the album for Here Lies Love. Long closed, but not forgotten.

The cast of Stereophonic. Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Betsy Aidem, Prayer for the French Republic

Jessica Lange, Mother Play

Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane

Sarah Paulson, Appropriate

Amy Ryan, Doubt: A Parable

Going off the Drama Desk wins this week, it looks like either Lange or Paulson are the frontrunners here. I wouldn't mind seeing an upset from Betsy Aidem (this play was so good and I hate that it's been forgotten so quickly), but I think this is probably Lange's or Paulson's to lose.

Sarah Paulson as Toni in Appropriate. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya

Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

Liev Schreiber, Doubt: A Parable

Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People

Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

My vote is for Stuhlbarg, who is electric onstage in Patriots.

Michael Stuhlbarg as Boris Berezovsky in Patriots. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Eden Espinosa, Lempicka

Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen

Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses

Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook

Gayle Rankin, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

I wouldn't mind seeing it go to Maryann Plunkett, who's doing wonderful work in The Notebook, but Kelli O'Hara or Maleah Joi Moon are probably the favorites to win.

Brian d'Arcy James and Kelli O'Hara as Joe Clay and Kirsten Arnesen in
Days of Wine and Roses. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Brody Grant, The Outsiders

Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along

Dorian Harewood, The Notebook

Brian d'Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses

Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Probably Groff, right? Probably Groff. But I wouldn't mind a BDJ win, even if I didn't care for his show. The man is so full of talent, and it'd be nice to see him honored with this at last.

Lindsay Mendez, Jonathan Groff, and Daniel Radcliffe as Mary, Frank, and
Charley in Merrily We Roll Along. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Quincy Tyler Bernstine, Doubt: A Parable

Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic

Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mother Play

Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic

Kara Young, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

I missed Doubt, but the performances from the other four in this category were all fantastic. I'm going to lean slightly toward CKB for her fantastic work playing a range of ages in Paula Vogel's memory play. That being said, other prognosticators are guessing either Sarah Pidgeon or Kara Young to win this, and I won't mind even a little if they do, as they're both fantastic.

Celia Keenan-Bolger and Jim Parsons as Martha and
Carl. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Will Brill, Stereophonic

Eli Gelb, Stereophonic

Jim Parsons, Mother Play

Tom Pecinka, Stereophonic

Corey Stoll, Appropriate

I guess the question here is, will the three Stereophonic actors cancel each other out? If they don't, my vote is for Will Brill, who always surprises. But I'll make the bet they cancel each other out, and maybe Corey Stoll will walk off with it.

Corey Stoll as Bo in Appropriate. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Shoshana Bean, Hell's Kitchen

Amber Iman, Lempicka

Nikki M. James, Suffs

Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python's Spamalot

Kecia Lewis, Hell's Kitchen

Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along

Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

No offense to anyone else in this category, but I really really want Kecia Lewis to win and I think she should. Word on the street is Lindsay Mendez is the frontrunner though, along with DanRad for Featured Actor, so the three Merrily leads can win. We'll see what happens!

Kecia Lewis and Maleah Joi Moon as Miss Liza Jane and Ali in Hell's Kitchen.
Photo by Marc J. Franklin.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Roger Bart, Back to the Future: The Musical

Joshua Boone, The Outsiders

Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell's Kitchen

Sky Lakota-Lynch, The Outsiders

Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along

Steven Skybell, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Much as I love DanRad (and much as I love Steven Skybell, who starred as Tevye in the best Fiddler I've ever seen), I think this is Sky Lakota-Lynch's, for his fantastic performance as Johnny Cade.

Sky Lakota-Lynch and Joshua Boone as Johnny Cade and Dallas Winston in
The Outsiders. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Scenic Design of a Play

dots, An Enemy of the People

dots, Appropriate

Derek McLane, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

David Zinn, Jaja's African Hair Braiding

David Zinn, Stereophonic

This is a very alliterative list of nominees ... and a repetitive one. And I'm kind of bummed Mary Jane wasn't nominated, considering how the space transformation in that production will stick with me for a long long time.

The full cast of Stereophonic on David Zinn's scenic design. Photo by
Julieta Cervantes.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini, Hell's Kitchen

AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian, The Outsiders

Takeshi Kata, Water for Elephants

David Korins, Here Lies Love

Riccardo Hernández and Peter Nigrini, Lempicka

Tim Hatley and Finn Ross, Back to the Future: The Musical

Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

While I want to recognize the achievements of both David Korins and Tom Scutt, in transforming proscenium theaters into non-proscenium spaces, I still think the choices and stage pictures for The Outsiders were more interesting. That's the winner for me.

The cast of The Outsiders against the scenography of AMP featuring
Tatiana Kahvegian. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Dede Ayite, Appropriate

Dede Ayite, Jaja's African Hair Braiding

Enver Chakartash, Stereophonic

Emilio Sosa, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

David Zinn, An Enemy of the People

Jaja's should really win for best wig and hair design (Nikya Mathis did win a Drama Desk for it, at least). Let's face it, Jaja's was so good, it needs to win for something. Please? But as we know, I'm almost always wrong on my design predictions, and I've come to terms with that. I gotta vote my heart, and Dede Ayite's work here was fantastic.

Andrew W. Butler, Sarah Pidgeon, Tom Pecinka, and Juliana Canfield as
Charlie, Diana, Peter, and Holly in Enver Chakartash's costume design for
Stereophonic. Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Dede Ayite, Hell's Kitchen

Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby

David Israel Reynoso, Water for Elephants

Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Paul Tazewell, Suffs

I'm pretty stumped on this one, but I do kind of want to give it to Paul Tazewell's impeccable design for Suffs. So I will.

Nadia Dandashi, Shaina Taub, Kim Blanck, Ally Bonino, and Hannah Cruz as
Doris Stevens, Alice Paul, Ruza Wenclawska, Lucy Burns, and Inez Milholland
in Paul Tazewell's costume design for Suffs. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Isabella Byrd, An Enemy of the People

Amith Chandrashaker, Prayer for the French Republic

Jiyoun Chang, Stereophonic

Jane Cox, Appropriate

Natasha Katz, Grey House

Dark horse! Voting for Grey House. But, you know, probably Stereophonic.

Tom Pecinka, Will Brill, and Sarah Pidgeon as Peter, Reggie, and Diana under
Jiyoun Chang's lighting design for Stereophonic. Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Brandon Stirling Baker, Illinoise

Bradley King and David Bengali, Water for Elephants

Isabella Byrd, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Natasha Katz, Hell's Kitchen

Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim, The Outsiders

Another difficult list. *throws a dart while blindfolded*

The cast of The Outsiders under the lighting of
Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim. Photo by 
Matthew Murphy.

Best Sound Design of a Play

Justin Ellington and Stefania Bulbarella, Jaja's African Hair Braiding

Leah Gelpe, Mary Jane

Tom Gibbons, Grey House

Bray Poor and Will Pickens, Appropriate

Ryan Rumery, Stereophonice

My vote is for Appropriate, which had an incredibly powerful sound design, but my guess is that frontrunner Stereophonic will take it (and which also has excellent sound design).

Juliana Canfield as Holly in Stereophonic (you can't see it, but that's Ryan
Rumery's sound design). Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Nick Lidster for Autograph, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along

Gareth Own, Hell's Kitchen

M.L. Dogg and Cody Spencer, Here Lies Love

Cody Spencer, The Outsiders

I vote Here Lies Love, which not only contended with transforming the sound design for a non-proscenium space, but allowed every lyric to be understood clearly.

The cast of Here Lies Love within the sound design of M.L. Dogg and Cody
Spencer. Photo by Billy Bustamante, Matthew Murphy, and Evan
Zimmerman.

Best Orchestrations

Timo Andres, Illinoise

Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone, Hell's Kitchen

Will Butler and Justin Craig, Stereophonic

Justin Levine, Matt Hinkley and Jamestown Revival (Jonathan Clay and Zach Chance), The Outsiders

Jonathan Tunick, Merrily We Roll Along

Oh man, I don't know. My impulse is for Illinoise, but it could go to legend Jonathan Tunick, or to play favorite of the season, Stereophonic.

Andrew R. Butler and Eli Gelb as Charlie and Grover in Stereophonic.
Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Choreography

Camille A. Brown, Hell's Kitchen

Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll, Water for Elephants

Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman, The Outsiders

Annie-B Parson, Here Lies Love

Justin Peck, Illinoise

Great as the choreo is for The Outsiders, great as the acrobatics are for Water for Elephants, kinetic and electric as the Hell's Kitchen movement was, come on. This goes to Justin Peck's choreo for the dance piece Illinoise, and we all know it.

The company of Illinoise dancing Justin Peck's choreography. Photo by
Liz Lauren.

Best Direction of a Play

Daniel Aukin,Stereophonic

Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane

Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate

Whitney White, Jaja's African Hair Braiding

Another that will probably go to Stereophonic but I wouldn't mind seeing a former teacher of mine win for Mary Jane.

Susan Pourfar and Rachel McAdams as Brianne and Mary Jane in Mary Jane
under Anne Kauffman's direction. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Direction of a Musical

Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

Michael Greif, Hell's Kitchen

Leigh Silverman, Suffs

Jessica Stone, Water for Elephants

Danya Taymor, The Outsiders

Maria Friedman seems to be the favorite for this, for rescuing Merrily and finally making it a Broadway hit. I ... still wanna give it to Danya Taymor for The Outsiders, whose stagecraft and muscularity transcend its weaker writing.

The ensemble of Merrily We Roll Along, as directed by Maria Friedman.
Photo by Matthew Murphy.