My Perennially Inaccurate Tony Predictions

It's been a thin season this year, especially as far as musicals are concerned -- it's always rather damning when two of the nominees for Best Original Score are plays rather than musicals. It's been a fatter season in terms of star power, which makes tickets harder to get ($400 for back of the orchestra is extortion). Accessibility issues aside, I'll admit I've been having a bit more fun with shows Off-Broadway rather than On this spring, but I missed my chance to do the Drama Desk predictions, so we may as well dive in. (Note: I missed Waiting for Godot, am bypassing Death of a Salesman and Dog Day Afternoon, and will not be able to see Rocky Horror Show until after Tony season. I saw Liberation during its Off-Broadway run, and did not end up making it to the Broadway transfer.)

Let's get to it!

What will win. Zelda's choice.

Best Play

The Balusters, David Lindsay-Abaire

Giant, Mark Rosenblatt

Liberation, Bess Wohl

Little Bear Ridge Road, Samuel D. Hunter

Personally, I think I appreciated The Balusters the most, though I have respect for both Giant and Liberation. I'm giving Liberation the edge on account of that handy Pulitzer.

Audrey Corsa as Dora and Susannah Floor as Lizzie, center,
with the cast of Liberation. Photo by Little Fang.

Best Musical

The Lost Boys

Schmigadoon!

Titaníque

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

What a weirdass season. A twee two-hander, an extravagant 80s vampire chic complete with a motorcycle chase and singing while flying, a parody of a blockbuster film, and an adaptation of a TV pastiche series of classic Broadway musicals. Both Lost Boys and Schmigadoon! have 12 nominations, but trying to compare the two is the worst case of apples to oranges I've seen in a while. In terms of design and staging, Lost Boys has the edge for me, and I did have a great time seeing it. But Schmig is definitely the more commercial of the two (and I also had a great time seeing it, and think the score is stronger), so I'm betting they take it.

Sara Chase, center, as Melissa with the cast of Schmigadoon!
Photo by Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman.

Best Revival of a Play

Becky Shaw, Gina Gionfriddo

Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Every Brilliant Thing, Duncan Macmillan with Jonny Donahoe

Fallen Angels, Nöel Coward

Oedipus, translation/adaptation Robert Icke

Death of a Salesman has all the buzz, and it probably deserves it. I've got some accrued exhaustion from that play in general, so decided not to see it, even with the hype. So from a purely subjective standpoint, I'm going with Robert Icke's Oedipus, which managed to turn an old story with a foregone conclusion into something taut and heartbreaking.

Laurie Metcalf as Linda Loman and Nathan Lane as Willy Loman
in Death of a Salesman. Photo by Emilio Madrid.

Best Revival of a Musical

Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Ragtime

Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

Jellicle Ball, hundred percent. This degree of reimagining deserves recognition, even if it's not quite the same experience as when it played downtown.

Robert "Silk" Mason as Magical Mister Mistoffelees with
the cast of Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Photo by Matthew Murphy
and Evan Zimmerman.

Best Book of a Musical

David Hornsby and Chris Hoch, The Lost Boys

Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!

Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue, Titaníque

Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

It would be kind of amazing if Titaníque won. But I think this will be another win for Schmig. The pastiche humor is on point.

Alex Brightman as Josh and Ayaan Diop as Carson having their
Music Man moment in Schmigadoon! Photo by Matthew Murphy
and Evan Zimmerman.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Caroline Shaw, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Steve Bargonetti, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone

The Recues, The Lost Boys

Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!

Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

As I said above, it's not a great sign when two out of five nominees for Best Score aren't even musicals. Anyway, I'm going with Schmig again, for a couple reasons. 1, see above re: excellent pastiche; 2, I had a great time at Lost Boys but stopped listening halfway through each song; and 3, Two Strangers is entirely too twee and not enough clever. 

Isabelle McCalla, center, as Emma Tate, with the cast of 
Schmigadoon! Photo by Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels

Carrie Coon, Bug

Susannah Flood, Liberation

Lesley Manville, Oedipus

Kelli O'Hara, Fallen Angels

A steep category for sure (I'm loving seeing Susannah Flood's career trajectory after her excellent Off-Broadway work), and good performances from all. But for me, Lesley Manville's Jocasta is head and toes above the rest.

Lesley Manville as Jocasta in Oedipus. Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Will Harrison, Punch

Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

John Lithgow, Giant

Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing

Mark Strong, Oedipus

Word on the street is this is Nathan Lane's award. I thought Lithgow and Strong both gave remarkable performances, but it sounds like I'd give this one to Lane as well.

Nathan Lane as Willy Loman in
Death of a Salesman. Photo by Emilo Madrid.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Sarah Chase, Schmigadoon!

Stephanie Hsu, Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

Caissie Levy, Ragtime

Marla Mindelle, Titaníque

Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

I honestly think it would be marvelous for Marla Mindelle to win for her iconic performance as Celine Dion, but I don't know her actual chances. It seems a bit more likely to land Caissie Levy's way, but as the title of this post indicates, I am often wrong. You know what, fuck it, let's vote for Marla Mindelle.

Caissie Levy, center, as Mother, with Joshua Henry as
Coalhouse Walker Jr., Brandon Uranowitz as Tateh, and
the cast of Ragtime. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Nicholas Christopher, Chess

Luke Evans, Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

Joshua Henry, Ragtime

Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime

I mean. Come on. Worthy work all around, but come on. This is Joshua Henry's and we all know it, and it's about dang time.

Joshua Henry as Coalhouse Walker Jr. with the cast of Ragtime.
Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Betsy Aidem, Liberation

Marylouise Burke, The Balusters

Aya Cash, Giant

Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

June Squibb, Marjorie Prime

Featured Role is once again the most difficult category in which to choose a favorite. Betsy Aidem was fantastic, and has been doing excellent work for years now. June Squibb is iconic. Aya Cash is a powerhouse. Laurie Metcalf elevates anything she touches. But for me? God, I'd love to see Marylouise Burke win for Balusters. She's so perfect in it.

June Squib as Marjorie and Cynthia Nixon as Tess in Marjorie Prime.
Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Christopher Abbott, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime

Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot

Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw

Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Richard Thomas, The Balusters

My Balusters love continues, and this is honestly my favorite work from Richard Thomas. That being said, I think it's a toss-up between Christopher Abbott and Ruben Santiago-Hudson for who will actually win.

Christopher Abbott as Biff Loman in Death of a Salesman.
Photo by Emilio Madrid.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

Hannah Cruz, Chess

Rachel Dratch, Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!

Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime

I kind of love that two SNL alums are represented here, even though it's not the first time either has performed on Broadway. I don't have a dog in this race if I'm being honest, so I'm gonna split my predictions between our two SNL ladies.

Ana Gasteyer, center, as Mildred Layton with the cast of 
Schmigadoon! Photo by Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys

André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Bryce Pinkham, Chess

Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime

Layton Williams, Titaníque

I ... I have no clue. Layton Williams won the Olivier, which might give him the edge. If I had to choose (and this is my prediction post, so yeah actually I do have to choose), I'd award it to either Ali Louis Bourzgui or Ben Levi Ross. I'm almost definitely going to be wrong with whatever I predict, so let's just move on.

Ben Levi Ross as Younger Brother with the cast of Ragtime.
Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus

Takeshi Kata, Bug

David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon

Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

David Rockwell, Fallen Angels

Again, I hear great things about Salesman. Rockwell's work for Fallen Angels is appropriately lush, but less striking to me than Takeshi Kata's claustrophobic Bug or Hildegard Bechtler's walls of glass and sliding doors for Oedipus, a world of seeming transparency masking so much.

Christopher Abbott as Biff Loman and Laurie Metcalf as 
Linda Loman on Chloe Lamford's scenic design for 
Death of a Salesman. Photo by Emilio Madrid.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

dots, Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys

Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!

Soutra Gilmour's scenic design for Two Strangers was probably my favorite thing about the show, so it's nice to see it recognized here. My enthusiastic vote here goes to Dane Laffrey's work for Lost Boys, dank and massive and full of hiding spots.

LJ Benet as Michael Emerson, Ali Louis Bourzgui as David,
and Sean Grandillo as Dwayne on Dane Laffrey's scenic design
for The Lost Boys. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon

Qween Jean, Liberation

Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels

Emilio Sosa, The Balusters

Paul Tazewell, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Strong work in general, but I found Qween Jean's work on Liberation most memorable. But Jeff Mahshie's vibrant gowns, a throwback to an older era of theater, might take the statue.

Rose Byrne as Jane and Kelli O'Hara as Julia in Jeff Mahshie's
costume design for Fallen Angels. Photo by Joan Marcus.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Linda Cho, Ragtime

Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!

Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Ryan Park, The Lost Boys

David I. Reynoso, Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

Although Linda Cho's design for Schmigadoon! gave Jellicle Ball a run for its money, I don't think there's any way Qween Jean's excellent work doesn't win. And it'd be cool to see her win in both costume categories this year.

The company of Cats: The Jellicle Ball sporting Qween Jean's
costume design. Photo by Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon

Natasha Chivers, Oedipus

Stacey Derosier, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Heather Gilbert, Bug

Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13

Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

From what I hear, it seems like Salesman has the edge in design. Fear of 13 had good work, but in terms of looks that have stuck with me, I'm going with Oedipus.

Nathan Lane as Willy Loman under Jack Knowles's lighting
design for Death of a Salesman. Photo by Emilio Madrid.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Kevin Adams, Chess

Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Jane Cox, Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design), Ragtime

Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!

Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Give it up for the over the top delight that is Jen Schriever and Michael Arden's lighting design for The Lost Boys.

The company of The Lost Boys under Jen Schriever and Michael
Arden's lighting design. Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Sound Design of a Play

Justin Ellington, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Tom Gibbons, Oedipus

Lee Kinney, The Fear of 13

Josh Schmidt, Bug

Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Oedipus again. Fight me.

Jordan Scowen as Eteocles, Olivia Reis as Antigone, Mark
Strong as Oedipus, Lesley Manville as Jocasta, James
Wilbraham as Polyneices, Anne Reid as Merope, and Bhasker
Patel as Corin in Oedipus. Photo by Julieta Cervantes.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys

Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Kai Harada, Ragtime

Brian Ronan, Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon!

I'm so bad at predicting Sound Design. I'm gonna guess The Lost Boys since it's a pretty great design all around, and I've already voted for it for Scenic and Lighting.

Pretend you can hear Ali Louis Borzgui's David and Dean
Maupin's Paul via Adam Fisher's sound design for The Lost Boys.
Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Best Orchestrations

Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!

Ethan Popp, Adrianne "AG" Gonzalez, Gabriel Mann, Kyle England, The Lost Boys

Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder, and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Brian Usifer, Chess

I'm inclined to send this Jellicle Ball's way, but I'm not learned enough in orchestrations to have a well-informed opinion.

Leiomy as Macavity, Kya Azeen as Etcetera, and Dava Huesca
Rumpletezer of Cats: The Jellicle Ball, dancing to the new
orchestrations by Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson,
Trevor Holder, and Doug Schadt. Photo by Matthew Murphy
and Evan Zimmerman.

Best Choreography

Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!

Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys

Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Ellenore Scott, Ragtime

Ani Taj, Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show

I believe this one is well-deserved by Christopher Gattelli, returning to restage his choreo from the TV series.

The company of Schmigadoon! dancing Christopher Gattelli's
choreography. Photo by Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman.

Best Direction of a Play

Nicholas Hytner, Giant

Robert Icke, Oedipus

Kenny Leon, The Balusters

Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Whitney White, Liberation

My choice is Robert Icke, who praises I sang earlier in this post. But I'm betting on Joe Mantello to actually win. Ugh, should I have seen Salesman? I don't want to.

Laurie Metcalf as Linda Loman with the cast of Death of a 
Salesman, under the direction of Joe Mantello.
Photo by Emilio Madrid.

Best Direction of a Musical

Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Lear deBessonet, Ragtime

Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!

Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

I think Gattelli is probably going to win this one as well, pairing with his choreography, but I'm a bit more inclined to dark horse it with Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch's work revisioning Cats to ballroom.

Sara Chase as Melissa and Max Clayton as Danny Bailey
under Christopher Gattelli's direction in Schmigadoon!
Photo by Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman.